Ahead of the election this week, Eye on Ohio took a quick look at how major issues could sway voters still on the fence.
“Even though the election is Tuesday, there are still a lot of undecided voters. We are fairly certain that Democrat Sherrod Brown will win the U.S. Senate race in Ohio, but most of the races (e.g., the governor’s race and the down-ballot races) are toss-ups,” said Dr. Lauren Copeland, Associate Director of the Community Research Institute at Baldwin Wallace University, who has used survey data in her research since 2009. “The outcome of the gubernatorial race will hinge on turnout and how late deciders break. If history is any guide, Cordray might be able to ride Brown’s coattails to the finish line because the same party tends to win the subernatorial and the senate races.”
But Copeland cautioned against accepting polls as the whole picture.
“Polls do not guarantee election victories. In 2016, Democrats were polling well in the Midwest, but late-deciders broke for President Trump,” she said.
Source: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/governor/ohio/
Source: Baldwin Wallace University custom data. Note: margin of error 8 to 10 percent.
What issues matter most to the candidates?
Mike DeWine’s Word Use Frequency
Excludes common non-descriptive words such as articles and prepositions.
Source: Candidate’s website.
Rich Cordray’s Word Use Frequency
Excludes common non-descriptive words such as articles and prepositions.
Source: Candidate’s website.
